ANAMBRA 2017: IN THE EYES OF A PASSERBY.

Strangely, I have exercised restraint in writing about the 2017 Anambra Gubernatorial election. This is attributed to a number of factors: first, I am not from Anambra (at best, I am but a passerby) and generally because my relationship with Anambra state has been most abusive.
For starters, I will give a brief account of my most painful experiences with the state that is described as the Light of the Nation.
Way back in 2012 while I was going to write my Post UTME at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife and accompanied by my father, we fell victims to the touts at the dreaded Upper Iweka. It was a particularly painful experience and we ended up spending two days on the road. That experience scarred me and it made me hate Anambra state and Onitsha in particular.
The other experience I had that further reinforced my disinterest in the State took place in 2015 as I was travelling home for Christmas and I fell victim again to the hoodlums at upper Iweka. This time, I actually came close to fighting them.
Now, it was not my experiences that caused me to show such apathy towards Anambra State: it was the fact that the people saw the menace as normal.
So, generally, Anambra State is a state I'd rather not write about.
But it's election year in Anambra (two years after the 2015 general elections) and as usual, the stakes are high and I've figured that I won't lose a farthing, analysing the prospects and chances of the contenders.
As is usual with Nigerian politics since 1999, given the outbreak of numerous political parties, there are over twenty candidates for the office but in actual fact, there are four contenders who without mincing words are the ones who truly stand a chance.
The contenders are Hon. Tony Nwoye of the APC, Oseloka Obaze of the PDP, Osita Chidoka of the UPP and incumbent, Governor Willie Obaino of APGA.

Tony Nwoye, APC:
He is young and appears to have a good understanding of Anambra Politics. He came into the limelight in the 2013 governorship election when he ran under the PDP and emerged as the first runner up, faring even better than former Governor and current Minister of Labour and Productivity, Dr Chris Ngige.
Another proof of his apparent mastery of the politics of Anambra State can be seen in his emergence as the standard flagbearer of the APC, shaking off competition from experienced war horse, Andy Uba.
Without a doubt, he has done enough to announce himself as a force to be reckoned with in Anambra politics but he is surrounded by obstacles that could effectively kill his dream.
His first major obstacle lies in his political party, the APC which is generally perceived as a party that cannot win elections in the South East, owing to the general belief that the Party is against Ndigbo.
Another hurdle that is standing tall against his quest to become Governor lies in his reputation as one who is given to thuggery and hooliganism.
Unless a miracle happens and he is able to change the general perception of him and his political party between now and Saturday, he can bid farewell to his dream of governing Anambra state for now.

Oseloka Obaze, PDP.
He is a renowned diplomat who is widely respected in the State.
Added to his reputation as a core professional and technocrat, he has the backing of former Governor, Peter Obi, who till date enjoys tremendous support and goodwill across the State for his good works while in office.
In addition to the support of Peter Obi, he belongs to the PDP, a political party which enjoys the sympathy of most Igbos.
Generally, he is a solid candidate who Anambra State will be lucky to have as their Governor, especially from his very impressive showing in the governorship debate held this past Sunday.
However, his major obstacle will be his relative lack of political experience and his perceived dependence on Peter Obi as the poster boy of his own campaign.
For Obaze, victory is in sight and it remains to be seen, whether he will hang on to claim it.

Osita Chidoka, UPP.
He is by all means, a rising star in the Light of the Nation.
A former Corps Marshall general of the Federal Road Safety Corporation, FRSC and a former minister of aviation in twilight of the Goodluck Jonathan administration (one of the few without allegations of corruption hanging over his head).
He is young and extremely capable, if his performance in Sunday's debate is anything to go by.
His track record of bringing about numerous institutional reforms in the Federal Road Safety Corps equally trails him.
Another factor that will count in his favour is the fact that he appears to be sympathetic to the struggle of the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB in their quest for the independence of the sovereign State of Biafra. What's more? The sympathy appears to have been reciprocated by them such that if they eventually snap out of their delusion and accept the futility of their quest to ensure that elections do not hold in Anambra, he will be assured of a more than reasonable percentage of their votes and those of their minders.
Also, he has ran probably the most organized electoral campaign that is quite similar with campaigns in more advanced countries.
However, his greatest undoing will be his inexperience in elective politics, which even manifests in his political party, the rather unknown UPP.
In all, Chidoka is perhaps, the perfect candidate for the position of Governor and for the neutrals, he is most deserving of their votes but sadly, the best man does not always win and so, while he is the best man for the job, electoral success will most likely elude him owing principally to his inexperience and that of his political party.

Willie Obaino, APGA.
He is the incumbent Governor of Anambra State and a product of Peter Obi's influence in Anambra politics given that he rode on his wings to Anambra Government house in 2013.
He has since fallen out with Peter Obi and as a result, does not enjoy his goodwill any longer.
As the incumbent, his incumbency will be his biggest strength and Achilles heel as well.
The high points of his achievements include the transformation of the face of the dreaded Upper Iweka in Onitsha as well as his efforts at giving Awka, the capital city a new face. His efforts at Agriculture are also commendable but frankly, these are modest achievements which ideally should not guarantee him a return to the Government House.
Aside the relative modesty of his achievements, he is accused of abandoning most of the projects commenced by Peter Obi and this has not gone well with the citizens.
To add to his misery, in a state that is largely sympathetic to the IPOB, his body language suggests that he is against them and that he is working actively to ensure the decimation of the group. Whether these perceptions are true or not, they will ultimately hurt him politically.
So, without mincing words, Wilie Obaino is not the best man for the job and Anambra State deserves better than him.
However, as far as the politics is concerned, he stands a good chance of winning: he is the incumbent who the Presidency has no reason to oppose and above all, his political party, APGA is traditionally an Igbo Party that has a strong base in Anambra State, always willing to latch on to the influence of Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu.
Hence, by way of a prediction based on the analysis above, Chief Willie Obiano of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA will most likely emerge as the Governor of Anambra State for a second four year term in office.

But then, what do I know?
I'm just a passerby!